Bank GNPAs improved to 10.8 pc; net NPAs to 5.3 pc in September: RBI

MUMBAI: The asset quality of banks showed improvement with gross non performing assets' (GNPAs) ratio declining to 10.8 per cent in September 2018 from 11.5 per cent in March 2018, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report said Monday.The net NPAs ratio also witnessed a fall at 5.3 per cent in September 2018 as against 6.2 per cent in March 2018, RBI said in its Financial Stability Report."In a sign of possible recovery from the impaired asset load, the GNPA ratio of both public and private sector banks showed a half-yearly decline, for the first time since March 2015, the financial year-end prior to the launch of asset quality review (AQR)," the report said.GNPAs of state-run lenders improved to 14.8 per cent in September 2018 from 15.2 per cent in March 2018, the report said.Private sector banks saw gross NPAs falling to 3.8 per cent in September 2018 from 4 per cent in March 2018.The report also tested the resilience of the banking system against macroeconomic shocks through macro-stress tests for credit risk.Under the baseline scenario, the GNPA ratio of all banks may come down to 10.3 per cent by March 2019 from 10.8 per cent in September 2018, the report said.The GNPA ratio of state-run lenders may decline from 14.8 per cent in September 2018 to 14.6 per cent by March 2019 under baseline scenario, whereas private sector banks' GNPA ratio may decline from 3.8 per cent to 3.3 per cent in March 2019, the report said.Foreign banks' GNPA ratio under baseline scenario might decline to 3.1 per cent in March 2019 from 3.6 per cent in September 2018, it said.The report said the ratio of restructured standard advances (RSAs) steadily declined in September 2018 to 0.5 per cent following the withdrawal of various restructuring schemes in February 2018."This suggested increasing shift of the restructured advances to NPA category," the report said.As of September 2018, provision coverage ratio (PCR) of all banks was higher as compared to 51 per cent in March 2018, with improvements noticed for both state-run banks and private sector banks, the report said.Distribution of banks GNPA ratio shows that the number of banks having GNPA ratio less than 10 per cent has gone down in September 2018 as compared to March 2018, the report said.The capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of banks declined marginally from 13.8 per cent in March 2018 to 13.7 per cent in September 2018, it said.The CRAR of state-run banks declined from 11.7 per cent to 11.3 per cent, the report said.The asset quality of the industry sector improved to 5 per cent in September 2018 compared to 13.6 per cent in March 2018, while that of agriculture and retail sectors declined to 6.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively in September 2018, it said.The share of large borrowers in total loan portfolios of banks and their share in GNPAs was at 54.6 per cent and 83.4 per cent respectively at the end of September 2018, the report said.The top 100 large borrowers accounted for 16 per cent of the gross advances and 21.2 per cent of GNPAs of banks, the report said.

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Prabhas, Anushka, Rana: Inside Rajamouli's Son's Star-Studded Wedding

Baahubali stars Prabhas, Rana Daggubati and Anushka Shetty formed an important part of the baaratis at the Jaipur wedding

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On Day 19, Navy Divers Reach Bottom Of Meghalaya Mine: 10 Points

On New Year's Eve, a diver of the navy finally reached the bottom of the 370-feet rat hole mine in Meghalaya where 15 men have been trapped for the last 19 days. But none of the trapped men were to be...

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Flipkart Qualcomm Days Sale Offers Discounts on These Smartphones

Flipkart's 'Qualcomm Days' sale brings offers on popular Snapdragon-powered smartphones on Flipkart.

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Congress Raises Rafale Issue In Lok Sabha Again, Rajnath Singh Counters

A belligerent Congress on Monday again sought to raise the issue of alleged scam in the Rafale deal in the Lok Sabha, with Home Minister Rajnath Singh saying that repeating a lie would not make it a...

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"At Its Lowest Ever": Ganguly Slams Aus Cricket Over Quality Of Selection

Sourav Ganguly took to Twitter to say that Australia's selection is currently hitting its "lowest".

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भारत बंद के दौरान दर्ज मुकदमों को वापस लें मध्य प्रदेश और राजस्थान सरकार : मायावती

बहुजन समाज पार्टी प्रमुख मायावती ने मध्य प्रदेश और राजस्थान की कांग्रेस सरकारों से भारत बंद के दौरान दोनों राज्यों में दर्ज मुकदमे वापस लेने की मांग की है।

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सीसीटीवी फुटेज से बड़ा खुलासा, जमाल खशोगी के शव के टुकड़े बैग में ले जाते दिखे लोग

तुर्की के एक टेलीविजन चैनल ने एक सीसीटीवी फुटेज का प्रसारण किया है जिसमें कुछ लोगों को सूटकेस और बैग ले जाते हुए दिखाया है। कहा जा रहा है कि इन सूटकेस और बैग में सऊदी अरब के दिवंगत पत्रकार जमाल खशोगी के शव के टुकड़ों को ले जाया जा रहा है।

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नए साल के जश्न में न पड़े खलल, दिल्ली पुलिस ने की 15 हजार पुलिसकर्मियों की तैनाती

राष्ट्रीय राजधानी में नववर्ष की पूर्व संध्या पर जश्न में कोई खलल न पड़े, इसके लिए करीब 15,000 पुलिसकर्मियों को तैनात किया गया है और यातायात को नियमित रखने के लिए विशेष इंतजाम किए गए हैं।

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Everyone, including you, will be put to a big test next year

2018 has rearranged the pieces on India's political stage to such an extent that the 2019 general elections are now a proper contest. None of what has happened, however, points to anti-incumbency against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. So, what has changed?Facts first. BJP lost 7 of the 9 Lok Sabha seats it won in 2014 in bypolls held in 2018. Of the nine states that went to polls this year, it lost three in the heartland and won two in the North-East. And of the 16 bypolls to various state assemblies, it won only two.These elections spanned across India, make it representative of a national mandate. The most significant of these results also happened to be Congress’s first string of victories against BJP after its 2014 rout.But sheer numbers can skew political reality. The truth is BJP emerged as the single-largest party in Karnataka but fell short of a majority by about 6 seats. It won Gujarat for the fourth time in a row, bagged the larger voteshare in Madhya Pradesh, and despite anti-incumbency recovered impressively to give Congress a close contest in Rajasthan.By all accounts, Modi’s popular appeal is not on the wane, especially when you consider that the PM doesn't campaign for bypolls. But what these Opposition wins have done is fade the air of invincibility around Modi and BJP. Especially for Congress, its principal rival.* The BJP Test BJP, today, stands at the crossroads. It has to choose between the Modi narrative on vikas (development) and the mandir narrative of communal polarisation. The second doesn’t literally stand just for the Ram temple in Ayodhya, but a range of issues deployed to ‘unify voters’ across caste groups in the name of Hindu assertion.Theoretically, BJP may want to adopt a high-risk strategy of trying to reconcile these two narratives. But that looks difficult with Modi as an incumbent prime minister. Any untoward development will have a direct bearing on his profile and government’s image. In short, the Modi campaign of 2014 could be insulated from what happened in Muzaffarnagar, UP, something that will not be possible in 2019 with BJP in power in both Centre and state. 67316780 The coming year will also test BJP’s political expansion into the east and whether it can win enough seats from these states to compensate (presumably) reduced numbers in the heartland. This inability to 'add new states' during the Vajpayee years was a key reason why BJP narrowly missed being the single-largest party in 2004.Modi will also have to establish fresh chemistry with potential allies and regional leaders. This may include tailoring priorities in a way that old and potential new allies feel they can exercise better influence over a Modi government and BJP. While that’s an external challenge, there’s an equally tricky terrain to negotiate within BJP, where the PM will have to coalesce more vocal rightwing elements under a new Modi agenda. How that will shape up will depend on the choice BJP makes now at the crossroads.* The Congress Test BJP has tried to make the 2019 elections a NaMo vs RaGa face-off. It feels such a binary will decisively swing fence-sitting voters towards Modi. For the Congress though, the biggest challenge will be to keep its president 'off this race'.The Congress situation is similar to what BJP faced in the 1990s, largely due to a steady erosion of its base in many states. But it has enough committed voters to strike alliances with regional parties that feel threatened by BJP’s rise. Its ability to concede space and act peacemaker among regional satraps will determine the extent, and nature, of the challenge the Opposition can pose to BJP. 67316789 The victories in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have also shown that the principal relevance of the Nehru-Gandhi family will now be in keeping warring groups within Congress together. Rahul Gandhi executed this role well in all the three states. This will also hold the key to Congress’s ability to score well in 2019 in states where it’s in direct contest with BJP.* The Regional Parties Test 'Regional pride' can a very persuasive political argument. Modi used it in the form of 'Gujarati Asmita' in his home state. The 'mahagathbandhan' in Bihar, which later broke up, was also built on the idea of Bihari pride. Even though the Odisha chief minister has won more elections than his father Biju Patnaik, it is the 'Legend of Biju' that makes the perception of Naveen Patnaik being 'rooted to Odisha' credible. So, regional pride will be asserted strongly in 2019 in the name of protecting India’s federal character.The challenge for these regional parties, however, is that they are dynastic and now saddled by a second-generation leadership, which will be tested in 2019 – and keenly so, since a rebellion is usually a whisper away in these outfits. Akhilesh Yadav, Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Tejaswi Prasad, Sukhbir Badal, Uddhav Thakre, M K Stalin and H D Kumaraswami are among the prominent next generation dynasts. Most of them had a good start thanks to initial hand-holding by their patriarchs. But they are now facing a credibility test and have to prove their individual political worth.BJP will come at them with the ‘silver spoon in their mouth’ argument. Unlike Rahul Gandhi, there may not be many second chances for these leaders, given the size, structure and reach of their parties. The strategic alliances they make for survival will deeply inform the Opposition narrative in the days and weeks ahead.The other set of regional parties are dominated by a single leader. Most of them are busy repositioning themselves to make the best out of the 2019 election outcome. This list includes Sharad Pawar, Mayawati, Mamata Bannerjee, Patnaik, K Chandrashekhar Rao, Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. AIADMK is now an uncertain entity following the death of the J Jayalalithaa.This second lot have been relatively more successful than the 'dynasts'. They are, however, always vulnerable to charges of corruption – barring, perhaps, someone like Arvind Kejriwal. The question before these regional outfits is that while most of them trace their genesis to anti-Congress politics, they are today threatened in their own turfs by an expansionist BJP.Will they transform into anti-BJP entities? Or stop somewhere 'in the middle' – the way BSP has started to show? Either way, the ability of these parties to forge a coalition against BJP can't ever materialise unless Congress brings a solid block of MPs to the table at BJP's expense. Until the just concluded assembly elections, Congress had not demonstrated the capacity to defeat BJP. That equation has now been rebalanced.In 2019, many of these parties will have to decide whether they can trust Congress enough to project a national grand alliance. The other option would be to leave it to a post-poll scenario. However, exercising that alternative may split votes in high-value states like UP, Bihar and Maharasthra, which alone account for over 160 seats, where pre-poll alliances would have to be worked out.The political theatre has come alive for 2019 with all parties, regardless of which camp they are in, staring at tough decisions and difficult choices in a high-stakes situation. What’s clear, though, is that 2019 will be the year of political churn – which, in many ways, has already begun and is unlikely to stop with the Lok Sabha elections.

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3 money tasks you shouldn't be missing at all

Today is the last day of 2018. Before you get into party mode, it is important that you complete these few tasks in order to welcome 2019 in a hassle-free way. Here are three financial tasks that you should have completed before today ends.1. Replace your non-chip based card with chip based oneAccording to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) circular dated, August 27, 2015, banks are required to replace the magstripe (or magnetic stripe) based debit and credit cards (i.e. non-chip cards) of their customers with EMV (Europay, MasterCard and Visa) chip cards. According to the circular, the last date to comply with this order is December 31, 2018. Post this deadline, all non-chip based cards will be blocked. If you still have not replaced your existing card with the EMV chip card, you better hurry up and do it now. Remember as per rules your card is liable to be blocked from January 1, 2019. As per the RBI diktat, the new EMV chip based card has to be issued to you free of cost by your bank.You can check if your card is chip-based if a chip is located on the face of the card on the left side.Also Read: How to get new chip based SBI ATM card2. File belated ITR today to avoid higher penaltyIf you are one of those taxpayers who have missed the extended income tax return (ITR) filing deadline of 31 August 2018 (except for Kerala assessees) , then you should file your belated ITR before December 31, 2018 ends. This is because belated ITR filed between January 1, 2019 and March 31, 2019 will invite double penalty. According to Section 234F of the Income Tax Act, a fee of Rs 5,000 will have to be paid if a ITR is filed after the expiry of the deadline but on or before December 31, 2018. However, if the ITR is filed between January 1, 2019 and March 31, 2019, then Rs 10,000 will have to be paid as late filing fees. Therefore, to avoid paying higher penalty on your belated ITR, you must file it today. Remember, for taxpayers whose income is not more than Rs 5 lakh, the maximum penalty will be Rs 1,000.Also Read: Everything you need to know about ITR filing for FY 2017-183. Non-CTS Cheque will not be processedAs per the RBI guidelines, banks are required to issue CTS-2010 compliant cheque books to their customers. However, if a non-CTS cheque was issued to the customer and presented to the bank for transfer of funds, then the clearing of the cheque (i.e., transfer of funds from the cheque issuer account to cheque receiver account) will be delayed. According to the central bank directive, effective from September 1, 2018, the periodicity of clearing of Non-CTS cheque has been reduced to 'once in a month' which is second Wednesday of each month. However, after December 31, 2018, non-CTS cheques will not be accepted for clearing. This is also mentioned on the State Bank of India (SBI) website. If you have non-CTS compliant cheque book, do not issue any cheques from that book and visit your bank's branch immediately to request for new CTS-2010 compliant chequebook. You can check if your chequebook is CTS-2010 compliant by checking if 'CTS-2010' is printed on the left side of the cheques leaves.

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Video shows bags with 'Khashoggi's remains'

ANKARA: A Turkish television station has broadcast CCTV footage showing men carrying cases and bags which it says contained slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi's body parts.The images shown on A-Haber television late Sunday feature three men carrying five suitcases and two large black bags into the home of the Saudi consul general in Istanbul.The residence lies a short distance from the Saudi consulate where Khashoggi was murdered in October in a killing that has tested Riyadh's relations with the West. Citing unnamed Turkish sources, A-Haber said Khashoggi's dismembered body was inside the cases and bags.Khashoggi, a contributor to the Washington Post, was killed on October 2 shortly after entering the kingdom's consulate in what Riyadh called a "rogue" operation.The 59-year-old former Saudi insider turned critic was strangled before he was cut up into pieces by a team of 15 Saudis sent to Istanbul for the killing, according to Turkish officials, with media reports suggesting the parts were dissolved in acid.The consulate and the residence were searched by the Turkish authorities in October along with several other locations but Khashoggi's body has still not been found.There has been speculation that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman ordered the hit but Riyadh has absolved the de facto leader of any blame. Saudi Arabia has also repeatedly rejected Turkish demands to extradite suspects connected to the murder of the journalist, a critic of the crown prince. A-Haber said the bags and suitcases were put into a minibus which travelled the short distance from the consulate to a garage at the residence. The men are then seen taking them inside.

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Tyre sector may grow 7-9% in 5yrs buoyed by demand, lower crude

The Indian tyre industry may log 7-9 per cent growth over the next five year backed by favourable outlook for the domestic automotive industry, rating agency Icra said in a note Monday.Icra, in the note also forecast the industry to see a capital expenditure of around Rs 20,000 crore during this period.Besides, the domestic tyre industry margins, which declined by 120 bps year-on-year in the September quarter, are expected to improve in the second half of the current fiscal due to the falling crude prices and stable prices of the natural rubber, it said."Tyre demand is estimated to grow by 7-9 per cent over the next five years (FY2019-23) supported by favourable outlook for the domestic automotive industry," Icra said.The rating agency also said said it has a stable outlook on the Indian tyre industry.Amidst continued investments towards capacity additions (partly being debt funded), the liquidity position, capitalisation and coverage indicators of the industry players are expected to remain comfortable largely supported by the stable earnings and healthy cash reserves available with most of the players, Icra said in the note.According to an industry report, the domestic automobile industry, which is currently the fourth largest in the world, is expected to become the third largest by 2021.The industry (including component manufacturing) is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9 per cent and reach USD 251.4-282.8 billion by 2026, thereby becoming the fastest growing industry in the country, as per the report.The domestic tyre industry has benefited from strong growth in both original equipment (OE) and replacement segments in the ongoing fiscal, according to Icra note. According to an industry report, the domestic automobile industry, which is currently the fourth largest in the world, is expected to become the third largest by 2021.The industry (including component manufacturing) is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9 per cent and reach USD 251.4-282.8 billion by 2026, thereby becoming the fastest growing industry in the country, as per the report."While there have been some headwinds like Kerala floods, tightened financing, insurance related regulatory changes impacting two-wheeler (2W) demand, rising fuel and interest costs, among others, the YTD (year-to-date) sales growth across most segments have been robust leading to healthy OE tyre demand growth," it said.Replacement tyre demand, especially in the truck and bus segment, too has recovered sharply in the last one year supported by post-effects of goods and service tax (GST), pick-up in infrastructure activities, and healthy consumption driven demand, it said.Besides, tyre exports have been steadily increasing in the last one year with recovery in tyre demand from overseas markets and rising competitiveness of Indian tyre makers, both in terms of quality and pricing, Icra stated.The tyre industry in the country has witnessed large capacity additions in the last decade with a cumulative spend of around Rs 27,800 crore, of which about 70 per cent was spent in the last six years.

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Focus on creating a level playing field to compete with exporting countries: Vedanta chief

Kolkata: Anil Agarwal, Chairman, Vedanta Resources Limited has said that India needs to take stringent measures to safeguard interests of the domestic producers and focus on creating a level playing field to compete with exporting countries. "We are over a billion people and as a resource enriched country, we must not be dependent on imports for crude, aluminium, iron ore as well as coal," he said in a statement on Monday adding, "India is also not a global dump yard for aluminium scrap and we need to take stringent measures to safeguard interests of the domestic producers and focus on creating a level playing field to compete with exporting countries," the statement said. Optimum exploitation of domestic resources in India could raise the contribution of natural resources sector to the national GDP to 10% from the present levels of 2% and thus help cut India’s import bill of over $300 billion for minerals, fuel and metal products, he pointed out. 'India is on an irreversible growth path and its natural resources sector has played a critical role in this trajectory contributing to Prime Minister’s vision of a $5 trillion economy. The decision to allow 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in mining and exploration of metal and non-metal ores under the automatic route will propel growth in the sector to a great extent,' he felt. "The year gone by was another successful year for Vedanta as we expanded all our businesses, adding Electrosteel Steels to our portfolio. This will engineer our interests in further diversification of business," the statememt added. Agarwal also said the group is now looking at a strategy to bring 1,00,000 dependents and associates impacted by the closure of Sterlite's copper plant at Tuticorin back to normalcy, while welcoming the National Green Tribunal’s order to restart out copper unit.

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Kotak MF’s Shibani Sircar Kurian on where to find value in 2019

2019 overall will be an interesting and constructive year for the market with some degree of near-term volatility 67323333 67321246 67319934 in the run up to the elections, Shibani Sircar Kurian, SVP & Head of Equity Research, Kotak Mutual Funds, tells ET Now. Edited excerpts: The way the markets have panned out for the better part of 2018, isn’t it clear that in some sense we are a little decoupled from the way the global markets have panned out? 2019 we believe will be more of an inflection point where we are fairly constructive on the market. Near term, in the run-up to the general elections, there could be some degree of volatility but macro risks have abated and there are clear signs of earnings growth coming back. Also, we have noticed that midcap valuations relative to the Nifty largecap valuations, are now back to 2014 levels which is where the initial part of the midcap bull run really started. And this is same for the smallcaps as well. Therefore, with the correction that you have seen on the midcap space and valuations being very reasonable, we believe at this point in time, there is selective opportunity in the mid and the smallcap arena. Of course, the caveat is we are looking at companies which are high growth and high quality and which have stable balance sheets and managements. 2019 overall will be an interesting and constructive year for the market with some degree of near-term volatility in the run up to the elections. As part of the sectoral bets, capital goods is showing early signs of recovery. How do you see the road ahead for the capital goods sector and could the general elections bring in greater traction for the overall cycle? Capital goods is one sector where it pays to have a slightly longer term horizon of about 18-24 months. In the last few years, most of the investment growth or capex has essentially been driven by public capex specifically in roads and railways. We believe that the scenario is now changing towards initial signs of private capex pickup and a few key reasons for this; one, across few sectors, we have seen capacity utilisation levels improving and coming back to longer-term averages. It is still not at its peak but it has significantly improved. Also, a lot of banks which were struggling with NPL issues now are seeing signs of incremental stress and delinquencies coming off and therefore there is willingness to lend once again to the corporate space. So if you have a slightly longer term horizon, this is one area where there could be revival especially in terms of private capex spends. Also, when we talk to companies in terms of their order inflows and order books, there are again signs of a pickup. So, this is a sector which in the near term could still take time but over a 18-24 month period, there would be definite revival. Where else do you find value? Another sector we are positive on has been the private corporate banking space. In the banking sector, we have played the retail private banks as structural themes which are more compounding stories given their high ROEs but at the margin over the last few months we believe that private corporate banks is an interesting space. Signs of delinquencies coming down especially in the corporate side means asset quality stress and credit costs will start abating. Also these banks have really worked hard on their liability profiles which are extremely strong. On the asset side as well, the retail book is growing at a faster pace than the overall market. These banks are now well poised to seek improvement in terms of their core operating performance and that should flow through in terms of better ROEs and earnings growth for next year. That is again one space we are positive on. Within the chemical sector, in which space is there regulatory advantage though the growth is substantially higher than other aspects of chemicals?We are positive on the sector as a whole and while we spoke about the regulatory aspect of what is happening in China because of pollution etc and the cost advantage now flowing through to India, what we have seen overall in the chemical space is that if you look over a long term, clearly market share shifts are happening between countries. There was a point in time when US was the dominant player. Then that market share shifted to China. Today India’s market share in the entire global chemical space is low single digit and therefore the opportunity to grow off this low base is something significant. Secondly, apart from what is happening in terms of China, there is a lot of investments that Indian companies have done in terms of R&D as well as in setting up infrastructure in the country and that is also helping the entire sector in terms of growth. Essentially from a sectoral perspective, we believe that growth can be significantly high off a low base. This is the time for India to actually gain market share. It is possible that over the next few years India could see that market share shift happening from China. What is your perspective on how IT is likely to pan out? Do you think growth and momentum will sustain for the sector stepping into 2019 too? IT clearly was the star of 2018, given the fact also that there were signs of some amount of demand revival and the currency acted as a tailwind. The sharp depreciation of the currency that we saw in 2018 is unlikely to be repeated in 2019. While there will be a mild depreciating bias, it would not be as sharp as what we saw in 2018. The way we are looking at IT is that the kind of upmove that you saw in 2018 would be a much more stable sort of move from here on. Clearly, when we are speaking to companies, they are optimistic that growth in 2019 from a demand perspective would be marginally better than 2018. We have still got to see that really playing out. The key risk would be what really happens to the US economy. If the economy slows down marginally, it is still fine for the sector. However, if there is a hard landing and a sharp slowdown in terms of GDP growth in the US economy, that would have a bearing in terms of demand outlook for the sector. As of now, we are building in some sort of improvement in terms of overall demand growth. The best of the margins would be behind us. In terms of valuations, the largecap IT space still looks fairly reasonable. These are cash generating companies and they return cash back to the shareholders and therefore valuations are fairly reasonable on the larger cap space. In the midcap space, there would be select opportunities where growth remains buoyant. However, it would not be a scenario that we saw in 2018 where the entire midcap space rallied sharply. It would be in comparison a slightly more muted year for IT as a whole in 2019. Tactically do you believe that in 2019 we will see the re-emergence of the small and midcaps which had clearly taken a back seat all of the past year? Yes. Our belief is that the kind of correction that you have seen in the midcap and the smallcap space clearly presents an opportunity. We have to be selective and focus on companies which are high growth and good quality companies. But given that midcap valuations relative to largecap valuations are now 2014 kind of lows, there is definite opportunity in the mid and the smallcap space. One has to be selective in terms of stock picking and clearly have a horizon of 18-24 months. Near term, there could be some degree of volatility but there is definite opportunity in the mid and the smallcap space. Do you think we will continue to see what we have seen in the past three months a slowdown across categories, CV, PVs as well as two-wheelers? Yes. It is a difficult time for the auto space. While over the term we are still structurally positive on autos but near term, clearly there is pressure and what we have seen in terms of slowdown, especially in the case of CVs and even in the case of passenger vehicles could continue for some time given the fact that demand trends are weak. While rural demand has been better than urban demand, the huge pickup that was expected in rural demand is yet to play out. Also, from a CV and tractor space, the kind of cycle that we have seen over the last few years, it is possible that the cycle is coming close to its end. So that is something that we need to be cognisant of. Near term, there could be pressure on the space and this would be a slightly difficult area to navigate. Over the medium term, we do believe that once things really settle down, demand would start to revive in pockets and over the medium term, we remain structurally positive but near term yes, there would be pressures. What is happening in NBFC space? Yes, there could be a scenario where NBFCs lose market share from here on to banks. Over the last five-six years, we have seen a stupendous growth of the NBFC sector where they were clearly growing at a pace faster than the overall industry and the overall space and that resulted in the ALM mismatches which resulted in the trouble that we have seen today. However, does that mean that we paint the entire NBFC sector with the same brush? The answer would be no. Clearly there are NBFCs who have been very prudent in their ALM management which are growing and continue to grow at a fast pace. These NBFCs will possibly gain market share and will emerge as superheroes. But the growth rate that we saw in the past few years would clearly come off and private sector banks at this point in time are in a sweet spot. So far, they were gaining market share only from PSU banks but will now gain market share from the PSU banks as well as from a select few NBFCs. From a liquidity perspective, the kind of liquidity tightness, that we have seen in the market post the IL&FS crisis, has abated at the margin. For the kind of growth that we saw, you need long-term funding and long-term funding comes at a low cost both of which will take some time to revert back. So yes, at the margin growth for the sector would be a challenge and we believe that there would be a few players who would emerge stronger but as a sector as a whole growth rates would be slower than what we have seen over the past few years.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2EYMF76
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तीन तलाक बिल : राज्यसभा में पूरे दिन हंगामा, कांग्रेस और भाजपा में नहीं बनी सहमति

राज्यसभा में सोमवार को तीन तलाक संबंधी चर्चित विधेयक पर चर्चा नहीं हो सकी। कांग्रेस के नेतृत्व में लगभग समूचे विपक्ष ने इसे प्रवर समिति में भेजने की मांग की,

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2R0hqjy

दिल्ली के रेड लाइट एरिया में नए साल का जश्न...पुलिस को करने पड़ते हैं जबरदस्त इंतजाम

दिल्ली का रेड लाइट एरिया यानी जीबी रोड भी 31 दिसंबर को खास चर्चा में है।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2RorjGR

ICC Test Rankings: नुकसान के बावजूद विराट की बादशाहत बरकरार, बुमराह को मिला बंपर फायदा

विराट कोहली को तीन स्थान का नुकसान हुआ, इसके बावजूद वह दूसरे स्थान पर काबिज केन विलियमसन से 34 अंक आगे हैं।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2TpGoFR

INDvAUS: 'कोहली-पुजारा हैं टीम इंडिया और ऑस्ट्रेलिया के बीच का सबसे बड़ा अंतर'

ऑस्ट्रेलियाई कोच जस्टिन लैंगर ने अपनी टीम में विश्व स्तरीय बल्लेबाजों की कमी का जिक्र किया और ध्यान दिलाया कि कप्तान विराट कोहली और चेतेश्वर पुजारा मौजूदा टेस्ट सीरीज में मेहमान टीम के लिए अंतर रहे।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2F0oLsZ

CCTV Footage Shows 3 Men Transporting ''Jamal Khashoggi's Body Parts''

A Turkish television station has broadcast CCTV footage showing men carrying cases and bags which it says contained slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi's body parts.

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WhatsApp Will Stop Working on These Phones Today

WhatsApp says that devices that run on Nokia S40 won't be able to use WhatsApp after December 31 i.e. today.

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Opinion: Clear Kota, Get Into IIT - And Then It Can All Go Terribly Wrong

The happy picture of smiling toppers entering IITs in different parts of the country is quite deceptive - many of the 16-17-year-olds arrive with the baggage of total exhaustion, a fallout of the...

from NDTV News - Special http://bit.ly/2EY21Ka
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Kareena Kapoor's Pic With Taimur Is Actually 'Mama Life' = Thug Life

Kareena and Saif may not be on social media but the star couple's travel buddy socialite Natasha Poonawalla is making up for their absence

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Cash Handout To Farmers Among 3 Options For PM Before 2019 Polls: Report

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is studying three options, including a cash handout for farmers, people with knowledge of the matter said, as his administration seeks to ease an agrarian distress and...

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Rupee Rises Further Above 70 Mark Against Dollar: 10 Points

The rupee rose by as much as 20 paise against the dollar in early trade on Monday, rising further from the 70 mark. Weakness in the dollar overseas along with advances in the domestic equity...

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Using Mandarin, China Firms Break Lanka Law At Project Sites, Face Action

Several Chinese project sites in the South-Asian island nation were found to have been using Mandarin and English language for the sign boards and ignoring the official languages -- Sinhala and Tamil.

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न्यूजीलैंड में नए साल का जश्न, आतिशबाजी के साथ किया जोरदार स्वागत

न्यूजीलैंड में नए साल का जश्न शुरू हो गया है। ऑकलैंड में आतिशबाजी के सात नए साल का स्वागत किया जा रहा है।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2EVoCWG

बिहार के मुजफ्फरपुर में नमकीन फैक्टरी में लगी आग, तीन की मौत

बिहार के मुजफ्फरपुर में एक फैक्टरी में आग लगने से दो लोगों की मौत हो गई है और 7 लोग फंस गए।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2Ap3TaZ

तीन तलाक पर इसलिए अटकाया कांग्रेस ने रोड़ा, राहुल गांधी की इस रणनीति में घिरी मोदी सरकार

लोकसभा में विपक्ष के कड़े तेवरों और विरोध के बीच तीन तलाक को गैर कानूनी करार देने वाला संशोधित विधेयक पारित हो गया। विपक्ष को लेकर जैसी उम्मीद जताई जा रही थी उसने

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2EVTaYw

The uncertain waters that await Shaktikanta Das and RBI in 2019

No one, within or outside RBI, would bet that someday Shaktikanta Das could blurt out, 'My name is Shaktikanta... and I do what I do' -- a snotty sound bite that revives memories of Raghuram Rajan addressing a fawning media. No one, likewise, would imagine Das shutting his doors to senior bankers, or blacklisting journalists who were unkind to men who appointed him as RBI governor -- traits that came to be associated with Urjit Patel.Yet there are trails that connect Das to his predecessors -- the flamboyant Rajan and the reclusive Patel, both hardcore economists, unlike Das.Beginner's Luck Das has had beginner’s luck – quite like Rajan, who, hours after taking charge as RBI governor, had come out with a no-brainer scheme to offer higher returns to NRIs on their bank deposits (a step that immediately arrested the rupee’s fall).In Das's case, his predecessor, Patel, was a bitter, reticent man who had isolated himself from the ministry and market to such a point that all that the new governor had to do was simply smile and talk at the Day 1 press conference -- in which journos banned for two years were also let in -- to reassure bankers and traders caught in an environment of warring and mistrust between North Block and Mint Street. Softening oil price and low inflation also made his job a little easier.A student of history innocent of the Samuelson-Balassa effect on inflation and real exchange rate, or the value-at-risk calculations behind RBI’s 'economic capital’, would probably recall the one-liner: A leader is a dealer in hope. Which is what Das brings to RBI -- a whiff of change that could make the Bank more approachable, even less hawkish, as it opens up the clogged lines of communication to the world. What we don’t know -- and that’s where he could remind us of Patel -- is whether he comes with a specific mandate from New Delhi.Patel, it’s widely perceived, was appointed after he had agreed, perhaps grudgingly, to allow demonetisation. Das, the amicable bureaucrat, will have to work amid the suspicion that he's been given the job to pave the way for scooping out 'extra’ reserves from RBI's balance to GoI's books, which the latter could then use to revive banks and cut debts. In fact, even a large interim dividend (of Rs 30,000 crore or more) from RBI to GoI before the 2019 Budget could turn the spotlight on Das. The Odds & Priorities Das steps in at a point when RBI, after a long time, finds itself in the realm of politics -- on the one hand, with the Opposition attacking the Centre’s every move to rejig and 'raid' a meek central bank, while on the other hand, GoI itself having blamed RBI for the surge in bad loans between 2008 and 2014.So what would Das do? Carving out a trillion or two from RBI’s books would be windfall to GoI but bad optics before the polls. Indeed, how smoothly he handles a large fund transfer could be his acid test. Aggressively talking up the market could make RBI come across as a cheerleader. Turning the heat off on errant banks with shoddy governance record would hurt his credibility as a regulator.Years in bureaucracy have trained Das to list his priorities. He began his innings by announcing large open market operations, where RBI would buy bonds from banks to flush the system with liquidity -- probably with the hope that banks would prune bond losses, be encouraged to lend, while lower bond yields would make it easier for struggling finance companies to roll over their borrowings as they once again battle redemption three months later. 67316827 At his first board meeting, Das gently pushed back GoI’s original agenda to convert RBI into a board-managed central bank by stating that the 'RBI governance’ issue needs “more deliberations”. As any RBI-watcher would agree, Das knows that GoI has partly achieved the objective even before he took oath as governor. By coaxing Patel to allow discussion on some of the operational issues in the last two RBI board meetings before his sudden exit, New Delhi has already asserted the importance of the board.But would he primarily focus on keeping the system on an even keel? Or attempt more serious changes? Nine out of ten people would think he would use his patience and goodwill to perform a balancing act: managing anticipations and avoiding shocks and surprises before the elections while staying below the radar. Those who know Das say even if he is given a mandate, he may not risk his own reputation by rushing it through.As one of the most closely tracked public figures, chances are Das may try to influence changes without rocking the boat. While the media tries to figure out his stand on issues such as the NPA provisioning rules, banking supervision, and promoters of private banks, Das may gently signal a shift in the thinking within the monetary policy committee.His Finest Hour? The new governor may not have answers to the counter-questions from some of the hawkish committee members -- as a non-economist, he may not fully grasp the models and technical presentations placed before the committee, and can't make RBI give up inflation targeting or choose a different index to measure inflation without amending the law. But there’s one thing he knows for sure – that there’s something wrong with the inflation forecasting model, flaws that often made RBI’s inflation predictions go haywire (like the current low inflation which the Bank never quite expected).Das may not be alone, as many within RBI may feel the same. Even as they accept ‘inflation targeting’ as a strategy, they believe there is scope to improve the model. It’s a tool that influences RBI’s decision to cut or hike interest rates and change stance on rates and liquidity. Any move to re-examine it would be one of the biggest news for the financial markets.Patel, as RBI deputy governor under Rajan, had played a key role in shaping the inflation targeting strategy for the monetary policy authority. As Patel’s successor, Das may well feel it’s time to finetune it.Bringing about an overnight change in the monetary policy committee's (MPC) thinking won't be easy. Before anyone else, the new governor would have to first persuade his deputy Viral Acharya -- a well-regarded economist with many published works and with the customary inflexibility attached to such accomplishments. But without getting lost in the maze of inflation targeting maths, the affable bureaucrat may set into play the forces of change with an innocuous suggestion to re-look at the model.As a senior official in the finance ministry in 2016, Das regularly took flak as reporters quizzed him every morning on the travails of demonetisation. As the queues for exchanging old currency notes grew longer, Das, perhaps in a moment of desperation, came out with the farcical suggestion to use indelible ink on the fingers of people who were laundering money by repeatedly joining the queue. Left holding the DeMo baby, he was pilloried then -- and reminded now by the media after being named RBI governor.Perhaps, as a civil servant, he had no choice but to execute the Tughlaqesque plan. But, today, he has choice. The 18th floor of the Mint Street tower, with its history, legacy, and credibility, has the elements that can transform people -- change even those who came to change the institution. Having learnt the tack to survive any regime change, and now armed with the power to create money, change interest rates, and sway the rupee, Das can make the next few years his finest -- beginning with his signature on the legal tender that he was once busy banning.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2CHyQZq
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thyssenkrupp names Vivek Bhatia as MD, CEO of thyssenkrupp Industries India

NEW DELHI: German industrial giant thyssenkrupp Monday announced the appointment of Vivek Bhatia as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of thyssenkrupp Industries India effective from January 1, 2019.Bhatia was earlier CEO - Asia Pacific at thyssenkrupp AG, driving group activities for all thyssenkrupp companies in the region. Prior to that, he led strategy, markets and development for the Asia Pacific region for the Group and was based in Singapore."I am pleased to welcome Vivek to his new role and thrilled to have his leadership at thyssenkrupp Industries India. Vivek brings unparalleled domain and technical expertise to thyssenkrupp," thyssenkrupp India CEO Ravi Kirpalani said in a statement.Prior to joining thyssenkrupp, Bhatia was with Boston Consulting Group, India. He had also worked for several years as a design engineer for refineries and pipelines at Engineers India Limited.Bhatia holds an MBA from IIM Calcutta, M Tech from IIT Delhi and BE from University of Delhi.thyssenkrupp Industries India, is one of the leading service providers in the fields of sugar plants and machinery, open cast mining and bulk material handling systems, cement plants and machinery and industrial boilers and power plants across the world.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2GLiHpG
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BHEL bags Rs 3500 cr order from West Bengal

NEW DELHI: Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) said it has bagged a Rs 3500 crore order for setting up a 660 mw supercritical thermal power plant in West Bengal.The order for setting up the Sagardighi Thermal Power Project Extension Unit-5 at Manigram village in Murshidabad district of West Bengal has been placed on BHEL by West Bengal Power Development Corporation (WBPDCL), an official statement said.BHEL’s scope of work in the project includes design, engineering, manufacture, supply, and commissioning of the main plant turnkey package, it said.The key equipment for the project will be manufactured at BHEL’s Trichy, Haridwar, Bhopal, Ranipet, Hyderabad, Jhansi, Thirumayam and Bengaluru plants, while the company's power sector - eastern region division will be responsible for construction and installation activities on site.BHEL is India’s largest manufacturer of power generation equipment with an installed base of over 1,83,000 mw of power plant equipment globally.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2BPNFri
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You won't be able to use WhatsApp on these devices in 2019

SAN FRANCISCO: Facebook-owned WhatsApp has been dropping support for dated devices and operating systems (OS) from time to time and now it is ending support for iOS 7 and older versions, Android 2.3.7 and Nokia Series 40 (S40).What this means is that users of Nokia Series 40 device will no longer be able to create new WhatsApp accounts and some features of the app could stop functioning on the device at any time."When we started WhatsApp in 2009, people's use of mobile devices looked very different from today. The Apple App Store was only a few months old. About 70 per cent of smartphones sold at the time had operating systems offered by BlackBerry and Nokia.Mobile operating systems offered by Google, Apple and Microsoft -- which account for 99.5 per cent of sales today -- were on less than 25 per cent of mobile devices sold at the time," it said in a blog post on Sunday.You will, however, still be able to use WhatsApp on the device though, according to the Dignited.The Nokia S40 OS was seen in the company's mid-tier devices like Nokia Asha 201, Nokia Asha 205, Nokia Asha 210, Nokia Asha 230, Nokia Asha 500, Nokia Asha 501, Nokia Asha 502, Nokia Asha 503, Nokia 206, Nokia 208, Nokia 301, Nokia 515.Earlier, WhatsApp had outlined devices and OS that would be cut off from its support room and affixed dates to them accordingly. Nokia S40 would be supported until December 31, 2018, Android versions 2.3.7 and older until February 1, 2020 and iOS 7 and older until February 1, 2020.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2EYE6cs
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देश के बैंकों को एक साल में लगी 41 हजार करोड़ रुपये की चपत: आरबीआई

पिछले चार सालों की तुलना में वर्ष 2018 में बैंकों को 40 हजार करोड़ का चूना लगा था। इंडियन एक्सप्रेस ने भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक (आरबीआई) की ताजा रिपोर्ट के हवाले से बताया है कि 2017 के मुकाबले यह करीब 72 फीसदी अधिक है।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2EWO8fb

कौन हैं सिख दंगों में उम्रकैद पाने वाले सज्जन कुमार, रेहड़ी पर चाय बेचने से सांसद बनने तक का सफर

पूर्व कांग्रेस नेता सज्जन कुमार का सियासी सफर उतार-चढ़ाव से भरा रहा। वह कैसे एक चायवाले से कांग्रेस सांसद बने पढ़ें उनका पूरा सफर... 

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2EYOl0p

करोड़ों के फर्जी स्टांप पेपर मामले के आरोपी अब्दुल करीम तेलगी को अदालत ने किया बरी

नासिक की एक अदालत ने स्टांप पेपर घोटाला मामले में अब्दुल करीम तेलगी और अन्य को बरी कर दिया है।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2Qe08tN

Triple Talaq Bill Live Updates: Real Test In Upper House Of Parliament Today

Three days after the Triple Talaq bill was passed in the Lok Sabha, the revised bill that will make instant Triple Talaq a punishable offence, will be tabled for debate in the Rajya Sabha today. The...

from NDTV News - Special http://bit.ly/2BO1Cpz
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रिजर्व बैंक की रिपोर्ट पर राहुल गांधी ने कहा- चौकीदार का भेष, चोरों का काम

आरबीआई के अनुसार साल 2017-18 के दौरान धोखाधड़ी करने वालों ने बैंक को 41,167.7 करोड़ रुपये का चूना लगाया। पिछले साल यह राशि 23,933 करोड़ रुपये की थी।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2AmNcwP

सोनिया-राहुल ने रक्षा सौदों में हस्तक्षेप नहीं किया, हमने सीबीआई जांच कराई : पूर्व रक्षामंत्री

अगस्ता वेस्टलैंड मामले में कांग्रेस के पूर्व रक्षा मंत्री ए के एंटनी ने कांग्रेस अध्यक्ष सोनिया गांधी का बचाव किया है। एंटनी ने कहा कि भाजपा सरकार झूठ गढ़ने के लिये एजेंसियों का दुरुपयोग कर रही है।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2SthzIN

जम्मू-कश्मीर: सेना ने ड्रोन से ढूंढा मारे गए पाक BAT घुसपैठियों का शव, पहनी हुई थी आर्मी की वर्दी

जम्मू-कश्मीर के नौगाम सेक्टर में नियंत्रण रेखा (एलओसी) के पास दो घुसपैठियों को ढेर कर भारतीय सेना ने सीमावर्ती चौकी को निशाना बनाने की बॉर्डर एक्शन टीम (बीएटी) की एक बड़ी कोशिश को नाकाम कर दिया।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2GPDCIm

No Power To Run Pump, Farmer Falls At Official's Feet In Madhya Pradesh

A 30-year-old farmer at a village in Madhya Pradesh's Shivpuri district fell at the feet of the district collector over delay in getting electricity to power his heavy field pumps.

from NDTV News - Special http://bit.ly/2AlH08k
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Maoist Pamphlets Claim Money Deal With Bihar BJP Leader After Notes Ban

After Maoists shot dead the uncle of a BJP legislator in Bihar's Aurangabad and torched several vehicles on Saturday, pamphlets were left behind in the town, 148 km from Patna. The pamphlets had...

from NDTV News - Special http://bit.ly/2QZ5K09
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Nokia 9 PureView Leaked Press Render Shows Penta-Lens Camera Setup

Nokia 9 PureView is speculated to launch sometime in the last week of January 2019.

from NDTV News - Special http://bit.ly/2LEzBp1
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Why market volatility is good for your SIP

By Dhirendra KumarWhat is the opposite of fragile? That’s a question Nassim Nicholas Taleb always asks when he is talking about his book, Antifragile. The audience invariably responds with words like ‘strong’ or ‘robust’ or ‘unbreakable’. Then Taleb asks, ‘What is the opposite of positive?’ Almost always, people say, ‘negative’. ‘Why didn’t you say that the opposite of positive is zero? If the opposite of fragile is robust, then the opposite of positive should be zero.’ This needs further explanation.If, as Taleb explains, you are shipping a glass object, you will write ‘handle carefully’ on the package. However, if you are shipping something made of iron, you won’t write anything, because an iron object is strong and robust, and unlikely to break if the package is dropped. That’s not the complete opposite of fragile. If your package contains something that is actually the opposite of fragile, you would write, ‘please mishandle’. If fragile things are considered to be those that are harmed by shock or adversity, then the opposite of fragile should be the things that benefit from shock or adversity.At first glance, this seems absurd. While there are things that can resist shock, there can’t be anything that will actually benefit from it. However, once Taleb starts explaining, and you start thinking about what he is saying, you will realise that there are several things that are the true opposite of fragile.When we skim headlines about equity investing, we get the impression that volatility is the worst thing for investors. In the past few months, the stock markets have been volatile and anchors of business TV channels have had long faces. The headline writers assume that since the equity markets are moving sharply, falling more than they are rising, it’s a bad time for investors. Surely, there must be investors for whom this is true. The crowds of punters, whose success or failure depends on correctly predicting what will happen from one day to the next, must be suffering.However, is there any investment strategy for the ordinary saver that can help bring in the gains of equity investing, even as he gains from volatility? Is there an antifragile investing strategy that you and I can use?Of course, there is. It’s something that smart mutual fund investors are already using. I’m referring to the systematic investment plans (SIPs). An SIP is based on the idea of averaging your investment cost over time. It’s the simplest and, yet, the most effective technique of benefitting from volatility. You invest a fixed amount every month and keep doing it for a long time. When the markets drop, stock prices are low and so are the NAVs of equity mutual funds. Therefore, the sum you invest gets you more units of the fund. Eventually, when you redeem your money, all units fetch an equal amount. However, your gains are higher because of the volatile periods, when you were able to invest at a low price. That’s antifragile—actual benefit from volatility.The SIP gains depend on long-term, gradual rise in equity prices, punctuated with periods of volatility or drop in the markets. It’s an antifragile investing strategy. You make more money precisely because the markets are volatile. If, hypothetically, the equity markets were to rise by a fixed amount every day, there would be no advantage in SIP investing.SIPs are essentially a psychological trick to keep investing regularly, regardless of whether the markets are down or up. It’s the routine that locks investors into an inertia, which turns out to be beneficial for them. The antifragile nature is a hidden advantage that brings real benefit over time.When one look at investing with this fragile-antifragile framework in mind, it’s immediately obvious that short-term trading of equities (or derivatives) is the ultimate in fragility, and long-term SIPs is the ultimate in antifragility.(The writer is CEO, Value Research)

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2RqSxgi
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Bottom-up approach most suitable for 2019: Porinju Veliyath

India still has a huge opportunity for picking the emerging companies, small and midcaps and creating multi-baggers, Porinju Veliyath, Founder & CEO, Equity Intelligence, tells ET Now. Edited excerpts: For a midcap or a smallcap stock-picker, it has been a tough year. Do you think 2019 will not only be a better year but a great year for individual stock pickers? A lot of people now feel that they got trapped in midcaps and smallcaps and it is a time to move to the blue chips, the largecaps. That would be a double mistake. There can be exceptions in both largecaps and mid and smallcaps. 2019 I strongly believe that will be a year for the midcap and small caps because of what happened in 2018. That is the basic reason. The valuations have come to reasonable levels and some of them have come to very attractive levels and that is the main point I would like to make. People have already invested in mid and smallcaps. They have continued to hold it and they are staring at a huge draw down in general. Smart people whose stocks have not gone down are maybe a small exception but in general, average investors in small and midcaps are sitting on a huge draw down. Some people sound very intelligent at this point of time when they say do not buy small and midcaps, buy only the large blue chip, looking at the state of the market. But it can be a wrong advice if given at the wrong time. Now it is a wrong time for that kind of advice. You have to be consistent. If you are a mid and smallcap investor and have been creating wealth in the last many years, five years or ten or twenty years, be consistent. I am telling you India still has a huge opportunity for picking the emerging companies, small and midcaps and creating multi-baggers which may not be the case today with the Nifty and Sensex. The Nifty and Sensex are not as cheap as maybe in 2013 or earlier. But things are not very expensive too, looking at the macro environment we are going through. 67320685 Luckily, in India, recently we are going through a huge reverse trend in macro headwinds. Now crude price and rupee is getting stronger, lot of good things are happening in the economy. Most importantly, people have to watch the reforms done in the past, the major historical reforms. The benefits will start accruing in many aspects. Number one will be tax compliance. Already, we are collecting 16-17% higher tax we are collecting. In the last five years, the tax has almost doubled. This is not a small thing. Our economy is growing at 6-7% and the tax collection is growing at 16-17%. Now I-T department has access to GST data and all BSE-NSE data on a daily basis. I would imagine any kind of non-compliance will be discouraged. I would not be surprised if our tax collection grew at 20% to 25% in last few years. That is very important for the economy.Clearly the time has come to separate the men from the boys when it comes to small and midcaps. I understand that is where your conviction lies . Where are the small and midcaps you are hunting right now? It is a bottom-up approach most suitable for 2019. Of course, bottom-up approach is something very common and is very highly appreciated. In 2019, it has a very special relevance. Instead of getting into a particular segment or industry, it will be better to adopt that approach because there was a huge volatility in 3,000 stocks other than the top 15-20 blue chips in the Nifty. It is an ideal situation for a bottom-up approach. There are companies and we have all seen that only the smallcaps have grown to midcaps and midcaps have grown to largecaps. Now HDFC Bank is a largecap and it is growing at 20% CAGR. It had only Rs 500-crore market cap two decades ago and now it is a Rs 5-6 lakh-crore market-cap company. Every largecap was a smallcap or a midcap at some point of time. Some of them are microcap. Infosys was a microcap in 1993 when I bought the stock first. So, it would be wrong to say do not buy smallcap. Everybody has different ways of investing. Some people invest only in the blue-chip companies. That is also a wonderful way to invest in Indian market and they are making wonderful CAGR, maybe 10-15 CAGR and are very safe. They do not have much volatility. That is also one style of investing. But it is not the only style of investing. There are people who created 25-30% CAGR, 35% CAGR and that has happened not by blue chip investing. For a long period of time, that has happened because of small and midcap investing in the structure of Indian economy. There is a lot of scope for such midcap businesses, medium type of companies to grow big and create 25-30% CAGR and we still have it. But it is not in plenty. When you look back in 2013, we had stories of very attractive valuations in mid and smallcaps. That has come down. You had bet on the likes of HSIL GSFC. You spoke about midcap IT also. Where are you looking for cherry picking next year? I do not want to give any individual names at this point of time. But it is true that I talked about some midcap IT companies. They are transforming into digital business, not just rupee trade or IT services. India has lot of companies managed by very smart people who are waiting for re-inventing that space in midcap IT. There are maybe five-six companies and we also started buying a couple of them in the last five or six months. I do not want to take names. Investors are smart enough to identify such quality names in midcap IT. Another sector, which is totally not fancied and beaten down and which nobody is talking about at this point of time is cement sector. I feel two aspects for this industry. First of all they are beaten down very badly especially the midcap cement companies and they are available at $45-50 per tonne enterprise value. That is really cheap like at 2013 level. Now the GST is at the high bracket of 28%. But there are clear indications that it will be brought down very soon. At the $50-60 dollars per tonne valuation, it looks very safe and cement will be consumed in India, After the demonetisation drive, there was lack of construction activities. It is again picking up and it will go much higher and today replacement cost of cement per tonne the EV is more than $100 and even the blue chip companies in cement are available at $80-90. Some well managed midcap cement companies at $50-60 valuation, will be very safe bet for 2019.In the beginning of 2018, you were bullish on HSIL, Kaya or a Lead Electronics. Can you be confident about any of these stocks for the next two to three years?We continue to hold Kaya and HSIL with a high conviction. At these prices, it looks really good. Kaya is our largest holding. The company has given an indication that they are going for more products. Now their care business has become profitable after a long 14 years. They are going to grow bigger by focussing on the products, product sales and brand. That is not reflecting in today’s valuation of Rs 800-900 crore of market cap and a clean balance sheet company.Marico has a very high quality management and I feel we are very confident and are holding on to the stocks. HSIL also has been beaten down because of some challenge in the earnings in the last couple of years. Again, that is a leader in the segment in some of the niche areas and Hindware, is a big brand nationally with high distribution reach. I feel HSIL at these prices is also very good. We are holding the stocks in portfolio management.The last time I spoke, I was betting on the improvement on corporate management and corporate governance. But many managements continue to remain chor. They find loopholes to siphon off money. There are two factors which drive small and midcap stocks, one is attractive valuations and second is sentiment and liquidity. When do you think the sentiment will change because if sentiment does not change, buyer and liquidity will not make a comeback?When liquidity and sentiment comes back, it will be about selling the stocks and not buying. So you should buy much before that. When liquidity and sentiment is low, you get stocks at say Rs 100 and when liquidity and sentiment is very good on the stock, it will be Rs 300. This is typical in small and midcaps. In 2013, people were not feeling like buying stock. I was extremely bullish on some of those companies at 5 and 6 PEs and I still am. In spite of the big drawdown, many of the stocks I recommended in 2013 are five times, 10 times and KRBL kind of stocks is 20-30 times up. So that is-- you should buy midcap and small caps with a conviction and as a great idea if you believe in that business model and its growth, buy it when the sentiment is low and if the liquidity is low it is an added advantage, you can buy it aaram se there would not be FIIs and all will come and buy it. So for individual investors this is very positive that liquidity is low, sentiment is low.What about your view on the elections and your expectations in terms of high conviction growth areas? You are saying that irrespective of who comes to power, the India growth story remains intact?The elections are going to be very important for investors in 2019. It has to be seen in the light of the huge reforms India witnessed in the last few years starting with demonetisation, the GST, IBC and NCLT. Anybody will agree there were flaws in implementing these reforms. We have got a limitation, India is such a huge, diverse country and economy that it is not an easy task to implement a GST. That is why we took so many decades after thinking of implementing it. Once we have to do it with a lot of imperfections, you cannot keep a perfect system and implement GST, nobody can do it. Anyway, this has to be seen as an attempt by the government to reduce black money, to bring in formal economy, to create a base for a higher growth of economy so that India can reduce its poverty level.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2Vjdyss
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Rohit Sharma Becomes Father Of Baby Girl, Will Miss Sydney Test vs Aus

Rohit Sharma will join the Indian squad on January 8 for the One-day Internationals.

from NDTV News - Special http://bit.ly/2QcXZyB
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311 आतंकियों के मंसूबे नहीं हुए पूरे, सुरक्षाबलों ने उतारा मौत के घाट

गृह मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों के अनुसार, घाटी में पिछले साल की तुलना में इस साल आतंकी गतिविधियां बढ़ी हैं। पिछले साल 342 घटनाएं हुई थीं जबकि इस साल दिसंबर के पहले हफ्ते तक 429 घटनाएं हो चुकी हैं।

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2GJ9zC2

सोहराबुद्दीन केस : राहुल के पर जेटली का निशाना, कहा- सही सवाल उठाते तो सही जवाब मिलता

सोहराबुद्दीन मामले को लेकर जेटली ने साधा राहुल पर निशाना, कहा....

from Latest And Breaking Hindi News Headlines, News In Hindi | अमर उजाला हिंदी न्यूज़ | - Amar Ujala http://bit.ly/2EYTDKu

Why Mukesh Ambani could dominate 2019 like never before

First, he spent $36 billion to get you connected and hooked. Then, he invaded your bedroom. Very soon it will be a grab for your wallet. Ambani’s retail plans, online and offline, for 2019 will be defining India Inc strategy next year. Tighter ecommerce rules that will apply on foreign giants from February 2019 will make this strategy more potent.Mukesh Ambani gave us the world’s largest mobile data and all-4G network for free voice calls, and rock bottom internet rates to get drunk on data. We can now talk forever, stream videos, and shop for great bargains, while villagers can avail government schemes and register for benefit payments, download textbooks, access healthcare and education and transfer money riding along the highway of 150,000 miles of hi-tech fibre optic cable that’s enough to circumnavigate Earth six times.In its first year itself, Jio transmitted more data than any carrier ever worldwide, catapulting India to cross the US in the number of apps downloaded from the Google Play store. Monthly data traffic per user has jumped 570% since Jio’s launch in September 2016, according to Morgan Stanley, as 18,000 cities and 20,000 villages got connected to the network.Yet, connectivity is just the first piece of his quadruple play of connectivity, carriage, content and commerce. Together, the 4Cs form the foundation of his career’s most ambitious corporate wager. He even bought two of the largest cable companies, Hathaway and Den Networks, to complement JioGigaFibre and take his telecom architecture indoors to grab 80% of data consumption that typically happens within four walls of people’s apartments. 67315334 This completed Ambani’s carriage plans, allowing him to add services on top, such as bundling optical fibre-based broadband with smart home solutions, or enterprise Cloud offerings for businesses. Go binge.But along with ubiquity, you need great content. So Jio simultaneously started shopping, scooping up media companies, sports franchises, online music and video streaming service startups.With consumers gorging on 240 crore gigabytes of content every month, the Jio juggernaut is steamrolling anything coming its way. But even then, the economics looks dire, as the average revenue per user is now down to sub-$2 a month. Even an ambitious 30% operating margin for a 1 billion-plus market translates to $8 billion gross earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). Doubling its revenue market share to a high 40% would only lead to a $3 billion EBITDA pie for Jio, after deploying 12 times more in investments. Mukesh Ambani would need a silver bullet.That’s where retail and financial services come in. Now that Jio has connected the masses — getting 250 million of them and counting firmly in its ecosystem — Ambani will start commerce on his platform to make money and recoup the massive investment, the largest the country has ever seen, to sell fashion and food, electronics and financial services, and even advertising. Once the freebie seduction ends, the high-end broadband connections will also come at a price.Don’t be surprised then, if Jio and Reliance Retail — also the largest organised player in India — blends into one, or dovetails its strategy to create an omni-channel experience by enabling seamless engagement between the online and offline worlds. 67315335 Reliance sees its hybrid commerce platform as one of its biggest engines for growth, pitting it against ecommerce giants like Amazon or retailers like Walmart. By integrating the physical and digital marketplaces, Ambani is dreaming of a ‘Bharat-India Jodo’ enterprise that will provide high-speed cabled internet all over India to connect the 3 crore small merchants and shopkeepers who provide the last-mile physical market connectivity.Ambani, a late re-entrant in the telecom business, has opened up the market to global tech and retailing titans as diverse as Alphabet, Facebook, Netflix and Amazon. Now, he will be their biggest threat. The way he assailed voice telephony — Reliance Jio Infocomm upended the entire telecom sector’s profitability within two years with its brutal price wars. He is now taking the battle straight to Jeff Bezos, the world’s richest individual and founder of Amazon.Consider the opportunity and the eventual prize. Bain & Co says India’s internet penetration is only 28% versus 88% of the US. Its $33 billion ecommerce market has trebled in three years, but it’s still just 3% of the overall retail market. And with GoI’s ecommerce regulations announcement, India’s richest man will have a good start.GoI has said these are not new rules but clarification and tightening of existing rules. Amazon and the Walmart-owned Flipkart Group won’t be able to sell products from companies in which they have an equity interest. These companies are also barred from entering into exclusive agreements with sellers, or from offering deep discounts and cashbacks. Moreover, if a vendor gets a minimum 25% of its purchases from a marketplace, it will be deemed as inventory.Amazon, in any case, is already hamstrung with existing rules disallowing it to hold ecommerce inventory locally. This prevents the retail giant from leveraging its globally renowned logistics prowess. Instead, tightened rules, some of which has been dubbed by experts as anti-consumer, will make Amazon look for other ways to keep the sales clock ticking.Reliance Retail can invest in supply chain and logistics, while fusing a growing online presence in tandem with siblings like Jio. In 2019, this can be the big play for Mukesh Ambani.Cheap data and growing penetration of smarter handsets have opened up a Pandora’s Box for commerce and payments in a country poised to be a $1 trillion digital economy by 2025, as estimated by Mckinsey. Almost at the same time, Ambani has become vocal in the raging debate on data localisation. He clearly states that ‘data colonisation’ is as bad as one India had to suffer prior to 1947. He wants India’s data to be controlled and owned by Indians and Indians alone.Remember, Aadhaar’s database helped Jio mop up a lion’s share of its users within such a short span of time. With GoI tightening rules for global e-tailers, all homegrown players in theory can make a better play for the digital commerce market. Ambani’s big moves, given his scale advantage, can be 2019’s defining corporate play.Jio has become profitable. But the real upside will be only when commerce and payments ride seamlessly on the telecom platform. That’s when investors will get the real bang for their buck. Till then, the price war in telecom will continue to be a race to the bottom. Rivals will keep breaking their backs — or simply fold up like the Tatas, Telenor or Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications — till Mukesh Ambani corners half the sector’s EBITDA for himself. Growth will also largely be exponential, not linear. So for ‘India’s Verizon’, it only makes sense to become Verizon plus Amazon. The only problem will be a policy change. But such a scenario seems unlikely for the moment.In his last AGM speech, Ambani had said he is determined to ‘connect everyone and everything, everywhere’. His new commerce platform, he added, will ‘promote shared prosperity’. 2019 is the year he will start working on that promise.

from Economic Times http://bit.ly/2ThcKlW
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11 moves that could make you rich in 2019

There was a lot of ups and downs in 2018; you won't be wrong in saying that it was one of the most eventful years we have seen in recent times. And as things stand at the end of the year, most asset classes have given below average returns. However, experts believe, things will look brighter in 2019. So, to take advantage of this, here are 11 smart money moves you can make in 2019. These strategies can improve your finances and make your richer in the new year. 1. Use SIPs to benefit from volatility: SIPs can help you ride the heightened volatility in this election year.Stock prices may fluctuate within a narrow band in the run up to the elections, and may later move sharply in either direction depending on the poll outcome. During this period of heightened volatility, it is critical that investors do not stop their SIPs. Sticking with SIPs during lean phases paysContinuing SIPs has rewarded investors after the rebound in market SIP Period CAGR Amount invested Final Value Apr2000-Mar2003 3.6% 3,60,000 3,80,335 Apr2000-Mar2005 36.1% 6,00,000 14,45,806 Jan2011-Dec2013 11.00% 3,60,000 4,24,689 Jan2011-Dec 2015 19.80% 6,00,000 9,81,357 Jan2007-Dec2011 5.5% 6,00,000 6,89,588 Jan2007-Dec2015 16.20% 10,80,000 23,08,384 *Rs 10,000 invested monthly in Franklin India Prima Plus FundIn fact, this market turbulence is likely to help investors benefit from rupee-cost averaging—buying more fund units when they cost less and less units when fund NAVs rise. So, if you stop your SIPs during this period, you are likely to miss the opportunity to accumulate fund units at low cost, and by the time you restart SIPs, the market may already have run up.In Pic: Amol Joshi Founder, Planrupee Investment Services 67298636 “Investors should welcome volatility during the beginning or middle stages of their SIPs.”Staying invested is particularly critical for investors who have started SIPs in the past 12-18 months. “It is during volatile periods that SIPs work best. Investors should actually welcome volatility during the beginning or middle stages of their SIPs,” says Amol Joshi, Founder, PlanRupee Investment Services. As the table shows, historically, investors have gained by continuing SIPs through lean market phases and sticking around for longer terms.Also Read: How debt, equity, real estate and gold investments did in 20182. Consider alternatives to large-cap fundsMost actively managed large-cap funds struggled to beat their benchmark indices last year, and their prospects aren’t bright this year too. “Investors should reset expectations from large-caps,” says Rohit Shah, CEO, Getting You Rich. If you want higher returns and can digest higher volatility, you may opt for actively managed multi-cap funds instead. Large-caps have struggled 67298645 Source: Value Research Data as on 25 Dec 2018These funds are better positioned to deliver alpha due to their flexibility to invest across market-caps. Also, as most multi-caps have a sizeable large-cap exposure, their risk profile is much lower than that of a mid- or small-cap funds. But, invest in them only if your risk appetite permits and stay invested for at least five years.3. Harvest capital gains from equity MFs: Regular churning will keep gains from equity funds below the Rs 1 lakh thresholdThe reintroduction of tax on longterm capital gains from stocks and equity funds has not depressed the small investor’s appetite. After an initial hiccup and some panic selling, markets resumed their upward march. The monthly SIP inflows into mutual funds rose 20% in 2018 as investors realised that the potential gains from equity funds could be higher than the 10% tax on gains beyond Rs 1 lakh. Indeed, the 10% tax will not make a big dent in the overall returns. In fact, small investors with SIPs of Rs 5,000-10,000 may not come under the ambit of the tax immediately.Your SIP gains may soon become taxableStart harvesting gains to avoid them building up to huge levels 67298664 However, bigger investors with monthly investments of Rs 30,000-50,000 could get affected. If you invest Rs 30,000 per month in an equity fund, even 12% annualised returns will lead to taxable capital gains within two years. Therefore, investors should consider harvesting their capital gains regularly to prevent gains from building up. In Pic: Deepti Goel Associate Partner, Alpha Capital 67298678 “Discipline is critical. If the investor redeems but doesn’t reinvest, the purpose is defeated.”Here’s how to go about it. If you started SIPs about a year ago, start redeeming units after they complete a year and reinvest the proceeds in the same or different fund. This will reset the buying price of the units and ensure that your capital gains do not overshoot the Rs 1 lakh tax free threshold anytime soon. Suppose you have an SIP of Rs 25,000 running in an equity fund. If the NAV of the fund in April 2018 was Rs 25, it would have fetched you 1,000 units. When these units complete a year in April 2019, sell the units and reinvest the proceeds. Similarly, keep doing this as and when more SIPs complete one year.4. Switch to save on interest outgoFrom 1 April, all new floating rate retail loans, including housing, auto and personal loans, are set to be benchmarked either to the RBI repo rate, the 91/182 days treasury Bill yield or any other benchmark market interest rate. The banking regulator wants banks to move away from using internal benchmarks to ensure transparency and better responsiveness to interest rate movements in the system. For borrowers, this could eliminate complaints about banks being quick to raise rates, while not displaying the alacrity when it comes to reducing rates in line with RBI policy action. However, they have to be prepared for more frequent rate resets.The most effective way of ensuring that your get a fair deal would be to take advantage of competition among banks to attract new borrowers. Even after the new external benchmarking mechanism is implemented, you can benefit from switching to lenders who are willing to charge a lower rate. However, before you opt for balance transfer, negotiate with your existing lender. If the lender refuses to reduce rates, you can take the call to switch. Be mindful of the balance loan tenure as well. The EMI’s interest component is high in the initial years, and you stand to gain much if you switch in the early years of the loan. The benefits of loan refinancing go down as the tenure progresses.5. Buy December 2019 Nifty call instead of index fund: Sometimes, F&O strategies can yield better returns for investors than even an index fundWe usually don’t recommend futures and options (F&O) strategies to our readers because it is a high-risk segment that encourages speculation and can lead to big losses. If the market does not move as expected, you can potentially lose more than you invest. However, the F&O segment sometimes offers opportunities where the risk is the same as an index fund. For instance, the December 2019 Nifty ‘call option’ with a ‘strike price’ of 5,000 closed at Rs 5,685 on 28 December. This call option gives you the right to buy Nifty at 5,000 on its expiration date of 26 December 2019. You have to pay Rs 10,859, if you want to buy Nifty through an index fund (Nifty closing value as on 28 December). In Pic: Feroze Azeez Deputy CEO , Anand Rathi Wealth Services 67298688 “As 5,000 Dec 2019 Nifty option is below its intrinsic value, buying it is better than buying a Nifty ETF.” However, your actual cost of buying one Nifty through the F&O route is only Rs 10,685 (Rs 5,000 + Rs 5,685). Buying options is for protection and therefore, options usually trade above their ‘intrinsic value’. In this case, it is trading below its intrinsic value of Rs 5,859 (actual Nifty closing price of 10,859 – 5,000) and therefore, worth picking up by long-term investors. “Since 5,000 December 2019 Nifty option is available at below its intrinsic value, it is much better than buying a Nifty ETF,” says Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth Services. The December 2019 call is trading below its intrinsic value because it is deep in the money and therefore, involves a very high outlay (Rs 5,685 upfront) per Nifty. Second, the lot size of Nifty options is 75; so the initial allocation will be Rs 4.26 lakh. Since most derivative traders use margin funding, they avoid options with high initial investments. The high initial cash allocation, however, should not deter investors. After all, they will have to shell out more if they buy an index fund. Buying 75 Nifty would entail an investment of Rs 8.14 lakh. By buying the call, they get the same exposure at a lower cost. The balance Rs 3.88 lakh can be invested in a debt product or arbitrage fund to earn a modest 7% return. So on a combined basis, you will be able to beat the Nifty by around 5% in 2019 – both in bear and bull market scenarios.Better then index fundRisk-reward in the F&O segment is favourable compared to index fund 67298695 6. Opt for short-term debt funds: Uncertainity on interest rate movement makes long-term debt funds risky.Given the uncertanity on interest rates movement, it is not the right time to opt for long-term funds, say experts. These funds invest in bonds with longer maturities, seeking to benefit from softening interests. Short term debt funds have topped the peformance chartsDespite the recent uptick in long-term debt schemes, they have been trumped by short-term funds. 67298723 Dhawal Dalal, CIO, Fixed Income, Edelweiss Mutual Fund, instead advises booking profits in this space: “Investors should gradually move away from long-term debt funds as they currently don’t offer enough compensation to take on the incremental risk.” In Pic: Dhawal Dalal CIO,Fixed Income, Edelweiss MF 67298735 “Long-term debt funds don’t offer enough compensation to take on the incremental risk.”He suggests opting for short-term funds with maturity profile of up to three years. Avnish Jain, Head, Fixed Income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, says investors may also consider corporate bond funds with a strong credit profile. He reckons corporate bonds with 2-5 year duration profile offer better value at this point7. Go for FMPs for stable returns, lower taxDebt funds carry interest rate risk. If rates go up, a debt fund will lose money. If you are not comfortable with this risk, go for fixed maturity plans (FMPs). These funds buy debt securities and hold till maturity so their returns are equal to the prevailing bond yields. Like in the case of debt mutual funds, short-term gains from FMPs are taxed as income. But if held for more than three years, the gains are treated as long-term capital gains and taxed at a lower rate of 20% after indexation. 3-year FMPs on offer 67298751 The indexation benefit is enhanced, if the holding period runs across more than three financial years. Some of the FMPs available right now will mature in 2022-23, so you will get four years indexation, even though the holding period will be just 40-odd months.8. Time to seriously consider NPS: The scheme shed some of its problems and became more attractive in 2018.More than 30% of the respondents to an online survey conducted in November 2017 said they didn’t invest in the NPS because of the tax treatment of the corpus. When they retire, NPS investors have to use 40% of the corpus to buy an annuity and can withdraw the remaining 60% of the corpus. In Pic: Archit Gupta CEO, Cleartax.in 67298773 “Negotiate with your company for the NPS benefit. It can help reduce your tax outgo significantly.” Till now, only 40% of this withdrawn amount was tax free, while the remaining 20% was taxed. In December, the government removed that impediment by making 60% of the corpus tax free at the time of maturity. This is just one of the several negative features that the pension scheme got rid of in 2018. In October, the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority allowed investors to allocate up to 75% to equities in the active choice option. Investors can also remain invested in the scheme till the age of 70 and stagger their withdrawals. Double-digit returns in past five yearsAggressive investors have earned the highest returns in the long term 67298791 Returns as on 26 Dec 2018. These are average returns of the eight pension fund managers. They have been blended as per the asset mix of the portfolio. 3- and 5-year returns are annualised. Source: Value ResearchApart from these changes, the tax benefits offered by NPS make the pension scheme a compelling option for investors in 2019. Under Section 80CCD(2), up to 10% of the basic salary contributed to the NPS on behalf of the employee by the employer is tax free. More tax can be saved by investing up to Rs 50,000 in the NPS under Sec 80CCD(1b). “The time has come for investors to seriously consider the NPS,” says Archit Gupta, CEO of tax filing portal Cleartax.com. His advice to taxpayers: Ask your employer to offer the NPS benefit which can cut tax significantly. What’s more, the NPS fund managers are no longer required to mimic the Nifty and can invest on a larger universe of stocks. This, and the raising of the cap on equity allocation, pit the NPS against ELSS tax-saving mutual funds. What works for the NPS are its ultra low charges. “The expense ratios of NPS funds are 0.01%, which is a fraction of what ELSS funds charge,” points out Sumit Shukla, CEO of HDFC Pension Fund.9. Go slow, but don’t shun US-focused fundsFunds investing in US stocks enjoyed a breezy ride until a few months ago, but their NAVs have fallen sharply over the past three months. This, however, shouldn’t lead investors to shun US-focused funds. “Three months is too short a time horizon to judge any equity fund’s performance,” says Rohit Shah, CEO, Getting You Rich. Lately, US-focused funds have taken a heavy beating Fund 3-Month Return (%) 3-Year Return (%) Franklin India Feeder Franklin US Opportunities -25.28 4.94 Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 Exchange Traded -22.09 10.71 Kotak US Equity Standard -21.94 5.28 DSP US Flexible Equity -19.03 8.12 ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity -17.79 8.3 Edelweiss US Value Equity Off-shore -17.31 5.78 Reliance US Equity Opportunities -16.17 9.7 Note: 3-year returns are annualised Source: Value Research Data as on 25 Dec 2018These funds invest in strong businesses with high brand equity and robust cash flows and offer healthy diversification to one’s portfolio. Besides, they also stand to gain from depreciation in the rupee over the long run. “Those who expect any expenditure in dollar terms in the medium term— child’s higher studies abroad, a foreign vacation, etc.—should particularly include a US focused fund in their portfolio,” says Vidya Bala, Head Mutual Fund Research, FundisIndia. However, she suggests that investors avoid actively managed funds from this space and stick to an index-based offering like the Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 ETF.10. Invest in name of senior citizen parent: Interest up to Rs 50,000 a year is tax free for those above 60.The 2018 Budget had given senior citizens an additional exemption of Rs 50,000 for interest income. If your parents are not in a very high income tax slab, you can gift money to them and get them to invest in small savings schemes or fixed deposits. In Pic: Sudhir Kaushik Co-Founder, Taxspanner.com 67298812 “It is perfectly legal to gift money to a parent to invest. It will not be treated as a sham transaction by the tax authorities.” The cherry on this cake is the higher interest rates offered to senior citizens by almost all banks. Assuming an interest rate of 8%, one can invest up to Rs 6.25 lakh to earn Rs 50,000 tax free from this strategy. Unlike gifts and investments made in the name of a spouse, gifts to parents and investments in their name will not be subject to clubbing. “This is perfectly legal and will not be treated as a sham transaction,” assures Sudhir Kaushik, chartered accountant and Co-founder of the tax filing portal Taxspanner.com. Best senior citizen depositsFive-year deposit rates for those above 60 67298821 Also, there is no gift tax on the money you give to your parents. So make use of their a basic tax exemption limit—Rs 3 lakh for people above 60 and Rs 5 lakh if they are above 80 years of age. In case they are exceeding the exemption limit, help them save taxes by investing in a scheme that is eligible for deduction under Section 80C.11. Opt for multi-year health insurance, cut premiums: These plans offer an upfront discount, if you pay the premium for multiple years in advance.Some New India Assurance customers, particularly in the older age groups, were hit hard as their health insurance premiums were hiked up to 100% in 2017. While this was an extreme case, unlike life insurance, your health insurance premiums rise with age.In Pic: Bhakti Rasal Certified Financial Planner 67298826 “Paying multi-year premiums upfront protects against premium hikes, besides securing you a discount on premium.”However, if you opt for a multi-year health plan, which requires you to pay the premium for several years in one go, you can avoid bearing the brunt of higher premiums over the next few years. The other advantage of multi-year health plans is that they offer discounts of 7-10% on premiums, compared to regular plans. In fact, a 40-year-old can save more than 20% in premium outgo in three years, if he opts for a multi-year health plan (see table) compared to a plan where he has to pay premiums annually.Multi-year health cover is lighter on your pocketA 40-year old male can reduce his 3-year premium outgo by more than 20%. 67298831 Note: Premiums pertain to Religare Health Insurance and include GST at 18%. NA: Not applicable“Multi-year plans are especially useful if you fall in the higher age brackets. A 65-yearold can see a sharp jump in her renewal premium when she turns 66 as the basic premiums are linked to age bands,” says Bhakti Rasal, a certified financial planner. Also, this financial year onwards, you can maximise tax benefits under Section 80D. Until last year, you could claim the tax break only in the year in which the premium was paid. Now, the premiums paid for more than one year will be allowed for deduction proportionately. For example, if your annual premium works out to be Rs 10,000 in 2018-19 and you have paid Rs 18,000 as upfront premium for two years, you will be able to claim a deduction of Rs 9,000 each in 2018-19 and 2019-20.(With Preeti Kulkarni & Sameer Bhardwaj)

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There are only two ways India can sway in '19

2019 could be a story of two contrasting endings. Weighed down by competitive electoral promises, the Indian economy could spiral down along with the rest of the world. Or, it could rise higher, feeding off the energy of a stable new government, structural reforms already underway, and tailwinds of low crude prices.Bill Clinton's campaign strategist James Carville had famously coined the line. 'The economy, stupid', during the 1992 US presidential elections that limited President George HW Bush to one term. It's more popular variant - 'It's the economy, stupid', is going to be with us here in India in 2019 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a second term. The answer to the question - How did the economy do under the Modi government? - in a way, will decide if 2019 will be a defining year for the economy, or if it will go down in history as the year when populism killed promise.GDP growth, the mother number to gauge the well-being of an economy, averaged 7.35% in the first four years of the Modi government, well ahead of the 6.7% in the preceding five years of the Manmohan Singh led UPA-2 government. Of course, these are reworked GDP numbers that lowered UPA era growth, and the debate will go on endlessly about the veracity of this 'back-series' calculation. But like them or not, these numbers will stay.That being the case, GoI seems to have made a case for its re-election. But then, why does it seem there's such a high level of dissatisfaction? Why do, as some people have asked, we not feel this high growth?The most dissatisfied is the farmer and his even poorer cousin, the landless laborer. Their lot has not improved for years, despite loan waivers and much promise. Because the root cause of low income has remained unaddressed.On the new jobs front, there are no reliable numbers. Nearly 80% falls under the informal economy and survey-based numbers are available only once every five years. Though it can be safely said that GST and demonetisation impacted this sector adversely. Construction, which absorbed hordes of migrant labour from the hinterland, has been hit by the crackdown on black money and GST.The formal economy, going by provident fund (PF) data, seems to have notched up good job numbers. But that could also be partly due to the formalisation of the economy due to GST and the currency swap.So what about white collar workers and salary earners, who decide their well-being on the increments they get every year? In years of double-digit inflation, when the economy grew by double-digit nominal growth rates, increments were also handsome. As inflation has kept low, so have increments - although real increments, after adjusting for inflation, may still be high or on par with earlier levels. This may have caused some heartburn.Are these stakeholders any more dissatisfied than they were earlier? Or could it be simply that the discontent of a few has been magnified because of a social media that was not so pervasive in the last general elections in 2014? How would social schemes like flush toilets, gas connections and electricity temper such dissatisfaction?The crucial question and one that will have a bearing on how 2019 pans out for the economy is how the incumbent government perceives the situation. Does it have confidence in the numbers it has notched up, despite GST and demonetisation, and because of the better-than-usual delivery in areas of reforms, infrastructure and social schemes? Or is it getting distracted by the chatter of dissatisfaction, much of which is not verifiable, one way or the other.If the government reacts with a panic 'populist' response, countered by a bigger counter-promise, India could plumb to economic troubles from which climbing out could be a tough task. 67316829 This government already faces much pressure to announce a nation-wide farm loan waiver. The very expensive idea of universal basic income (UBI), a dole that the government’s Budget cannot afford, seems already under consideration.The impact on government finances could be much worse than the decadal shock of pay commissions when deficits rise, forcing a cut in productive spending. Even public investment could stall, markets tank, deficits rise, and interest rates climb up. The rest we have all seen before. The situation could be even worse, if a messy coalition takes charge in New Delhi in May 2019.The counter narrative of an economic lift off has an equally good chance of playing out - if a stable government, of any hue and colour, emerges after what is likely to be a brutally contested election. For this option to unfold, India will need a government not weighed down by populist electoral commitments.A number of structural reforms already in place – GST, insolvency and bankruptcy code, and ease of doing business are in the process of stabilising in 2019, and transitioning to the next step when their gains begin to flow.The bad loans problem of public sector banks (PSBs) has clearly peaked, and should soon allow for normal credit operations to begin, which in turn will allow funds-deprived sectors to grow again.The looming global slowdown, though a headwind for exports, would also ensure that crude prices, the Achilles' heel of the Indian economy, remain low, helping maintain the macro-economic balance of low inflation, and controlled twin deficits.The consumption story, the strong point of the Indian economy, can then play out freely. The bane of the economy for a while, private investments, which are already showing tentative signs of awakening, could start to contribute to growth. The bonus could be the next set of reforms - labour for one - by the new government that would fire ‘Make in India’ and exports.If this scenario plays out, 2019 could be the year India pulls further away from China in terms of growth, overtakes Britain to become the fifth largest economy, and climbs to an over 8% growth rate. That would, indeed, be a happy ending.

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Modi plans cash handout for farmers before poll

By Vrishti Beniwal and Pratik ParijaPrime Minister Narendra Modi is studying three options, including a cash handout for farmers, people with knowledge of the matter said, as his administration seeks to ease an agrarian distress and shore up popular support ahead of next year’s general election.The government is weighing options including a monthly income support program for farmers, a cash handout plan for the shortfall between the actual sale price and state-set procurement rate and a revamped crop insurance program, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified as they aren’t authorized to speak to the media. The final program could be one of these or a combination of all three.The plan for the handout comes soon after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party was voted out in key state elections this month, forcing Modi to draw up a course correction before federal polls due by May. The government, which has already exceeded the annual budget gap aim, has little room for spending in the current year, having forgone some tax revenue on goods and services following the defeat.The income support program involves a certain amount as monthly payout to farmers and could benefit as many as 150 million farm households, a key bloc that can influence the election outcome.Distress SalesIn July, the government raised support prices of crops such as cotton, soybeans and paddy rice to ensure farmers get at least 50 percent more than the estimated production costs. While that has largely failed to shield farmers from distress sales due to lack of sufficient state procurement, the government now plans to pay cash to farmers if their produce sells at a discount to the government-set rates.Another alternative being considered is a revamp of the crop insurance program. The changes could include a reduction in premium paid by farmers, inclusion of more crops to avail state incentives and bringing tenant farmers under the cover.Finance ministry spokesman D.S. Malik didn’t respond to two calls made to his mobile phone. An agriculture ministry spokeswoman declined to comment.Modi, who is seeking a second term, has to win over farmers before the election. They have been hit by falling crop prices and rising input costs, forcing them to hit the streets seeking debt waivers and protection from distress sales. Add to it, the pressure from opposition Indian National Congress which waived off farm loans after wresting power from the BJP in three states earlier this month.The income support program could help reduce poverty in a country that’s home to a third of the world’s poor and still spends less than 2 percent of its gross domestic product on social security.With the government already exceeding its budgeted annual deficit in October, any sops will need to be balanced with possible reductions in spending to achieve the fiscal gap target of 3.3 percent of gross domestic product.

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