View: The right climate to take it on for India

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) has concluded for the first time that human influence on the warming of atmosphere, ocean and land is ‘unequivocal’. It has also deduced that rise in global surface temperature will continue at least until the mid-century under all emission scenarios. So, climate impacts are going to be a reality as we move into the future, with implications for current and future generations.India has a large number of people dependent on climate-dependent sectors — agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and fisheries — for livelihood. A significant number of them are also poor. The Himalayas and the long coast line of 7,500 km are also delicate ecosystems, highly vulnerable to climate impacts.An estimated 65% of India’s landscape is drought-prone, 12% is flood-prone and 8% is vulnerable to cyclones. Instances of floods in India are second highest globally, averaging at 17 flood events a year, and impacting an estimated 345 million people. Cyclone Amphan affected about 13 million people and caused loss of property worth $13 billion. Declining agricultural productivity, rising sea levels and negative health impacts are estimated to cost 3% of GDP for 1° C warming, but could go up to 10% of GDP for 3° C warming.India’s agriculture sector provides livelihood to about half of its population. Almost 68% of its total net sown area in India is rain-fed. Variable precipitation will result in water becoming scarcer in some regions, and perilously abundant in others. At risk will be sustainability of current agricultural practices, livelihoods of the most vulnerable 120 million smallholder farmers and food security for the nation. Ironically, agriculture, in turn, contributes to almost a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions on account of deforestation and use of agricultural inputs like chemical fertilisers, weedicides, pumped water and transportation.A multipronged focus on building resilience and employing innovative approaches to agriculture can offer simultaneous benefits of adaptation and mitigation. We need to urgently pursue zone-appropriate crop selection, propagate efficient irrigation technologies, deepen financial inclusion and assured availability of reasonably priced farm credit. There should also be an effort to encourage alternative livelihoods.Building resilient infrastructure is another area of adaptation intervention, which can be achieved through a mere 3% increase in infrastructure spending. Currently, investment in disaster-resilient infrastructure tends to disproportionately benefit the rich, as assets tend to be concentrated in richer localities. Attention must pivot towards resilient infrastructure for poor areas. Globally, the bottom 20% people lose only 11% assets to disasters, but suffer an alarming 47% well-being loss as a consequence.India has institutionalised adaptation activities at subnational levels through the State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs). The ongoing revision of SAPCCs offers an opportune window for states to deepen adaptation planning. However, this work will need to be complemented with building capacity of state-level stakeholders for integrating adaptation initiatives into existing programmes and projects. This includes assessment of vulnerabilities and sensitisation towards adaptation impact of developmental intervention.Since its inception in 2015-16, the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) has funded only 30 projects worth Rs 847 crore, leaving states hamstrung with limited state resources for adaptation activities. This funding gap needs to be addressed.Countries like India that are among the most vulnerable need to orient their policies and resources towards enhancing adaptive capacity like never before. If India is to meet its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2030, it will require an outlay of $2.5 trillion on climate adaptation and mitigation projects. India’s GDP in 2020 stood at about $3 trillion. It is evident that public funding will, at best, be one of the many sources for adaptation finance. We need to look beyond, and develop business cases to access relevant cheap and large volumes of capital for adaptation initiatives.Kumar is vice-chairman, and Goel is climate change specialist, NITI Aayog

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