Biden's Exit 9/11 plan and its implications

Playing the ‘get-out-of-Afghanistan’ card was easier as veepee. But as president, Joe Biden was finding it hard to make a decision that satisfies all constituencies, and was also the ‘right’ one. We don’t know about whether he’s decided right but, on Tuesday, the president walked the talk and declared that the US will be withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan by September 11, hoping to end what Biden had called ‘The Forever War’.In 2010, Biden had snapped at Richard Holbrooke, US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the time, that he wasn’t about to send his ‘boy back there to risk his life on behalf of women’s rights, it just doesn’t work, that’s not what they’re there for’. Biden’s elder son Beau had served in Afghanistan. The exchange is reported in George Packer’s Our Man, a biography of Holbrooke.When Holbrooke suggested there might be a strong reaction from Nato allies and other consequences of a sudden departure, Biden got explicit, ‘Fuck that, we don’t have to worry about that. We did it in Vietnam.’ It’s not a secret that as Barack Obama’s VP, Biden’s position was clear: the US had to get out of Afghanistan. Enough was enough.Today, as president, Biden has followed his instincts. The decision will keep more than 3,000 US troops in Afghanistan beyond the May 1 withdrawal deadline announced by the previous Trump administration.As on April 13, the May 1 deadline was almost here and the Taliban didn’t seem interested in extending it. The Pentagon wanted a decision. It got it. But the logistics of bringing back war equipment sent over two decades are daunting. The generals are worried about exposure to potential Taliban attacks.‘Optimists’ had been saying that the White House wanted to give more time to the parties to come to an interim power-sharing arrangement. Biden inherited a bad situation. He was boxed in by a deadline, and delay was one way to create leverage. He chose to bite the bullet.His national security team has met several times since February. But it seems the three main agencies — Defence, State and the CIA — didn’t agree on a way forward. So, the president weighed in.The CIA reportedly wanted continued US involvement to be able to maintain ‘operational flexibility’ and keep doing what it has been for years. It even wanted to expand its footprint. The Defence Department also wanted to maintain a presence to prevent a collapse of the Afghan government. But senior commanders saw a political settlement as an end goal. The State Department supported a withdrawal if an interim agreement could be reached among parties.The latest Annual Threat Assessment report released on Tuesday did not contain an assessment of the chances of a return of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan, while senior intelligence officials remain sceptical the Taliban would allow such a development.All this while, Kabul has been awash with ‘peace plans’. Warlords have proposed theirs and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has his, which asks the Taliban to participate in a loya jirga (grand assembly) and then in an election. Taliban and elections are like Taliban and modernity — opposite poles. Outside powers are anyway ready to anoint them without an election. Talks proposed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken — whose curt letter to Ghani was but one example of the growing distance between Washington and Kabul — are to start this week in Turkey after initial delays and reported Pakistani opposition to India’s participation.The withdrawal of US troops by September 11 will suit Taliban, a fixed timeline for withdrawal being the Talban’s topmost demand. Biden’s recent comment that US troops may stay longer had prompted the Taliban to make an open threat. On its website, they warned that ‘if the occupying forces do not leave by the agreed upon date, then attacks shall resume’.The US military had already been adding additional layers of security, as is the State Department for the US Embassy in Kabul. Last month’s Taliban attack on CIA operatives in eastern Afghanistan was a warning shot, and probably a message that secret US locations are in their sights. That means danger to several hundred special operations forces sent to hunt down al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) elements.But who is helping the Taliban locate the sites? The current situation has stark parallels in 1989 when the Soviets withdrew in the face of US-supported mujahideen fighters, financed and equipped with the help of Pakistan. American and Russian roles may have reversed somewhat. But there is one constant — Pakistan. Hopefully, Exit 9/11 will make things less, not more, hectic for Biden.

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